Doomsday – 2016

There is a growing fear among scientists that, thanks to man-made climate change, we are about to return to a world of climatic turbulence, where tipping points are constantly crossed. Their research into the workings of the planet’s ecosystems suggests why such sudden changes have happened in the past, and are likely again in future. Soon it could be a great deal more.

Jim Hansen of NASA, George Bush’s top climate modeller, predicts sea-level rise will be 10 times faster within a few years, as Greenland destabilises. “Building an ice sheet takes a long time,” he says. “But destroying it can be explosively rapid.” Hansen says we have 10 years to turn things around and escape disaster.
Sydney Morning Herald, 11 Nov 2006

Canary in the coal mine – Mount Wheeler

As the climate changes, disappearing snow and ice on Wheeler Peak — Nevada’s second-highest mountain — raise concerns about the future of water in the state, for which the glacier plays an integral role.

Climate change is expected to hit alpine ecosystems like Mount Wheeler’s hardest, said Steven Mietz, superintendent of Great Basin National Park.

“The region could be a baseline for measuring how nature reacts to global warming. The glacier is a canary in a coal mine,” he said.
Las Vegas Sun, 25 Nov 2015

thanks to John Blethen

Bambi dumped!

Bambi
Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Tuesday he will integrate climate change analysis and its national security implications into all future foreign policy planning.

“We have to prepare ourselves for the potential social and political consequences that stem from crop failures, water shortages, famine and outbreaks of epidemic disease,” he said.

“And we have to heighten our national security readiness to deal with the possible destruction of vital infrastructure and the mass movement of refugees — particularly in parts of the world that already provide fertile ground for violent extremism and terror.”

“Long story short, climate change isn’t just about Bambi. It’s about us.”
Washington Post, 10 Nov 2015

thanks to ddh

Doomsday – 2020

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
The Guardian, 22/2/04

lopsided world

lopsided_earth

Extra precipitation expected as a result of global warming could create a lopsided world in which sea ice increases around the South Pole while the far north melts away.

“Most people have heard of climate change and how rising air temperatures are melting glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic,” said Dylan Powell of the University of Maryland Baltimore County. “However, findings from our simulations suggest a counterintuitive phenomenon. Some of the melt in the Arctic may be balanced by increases in sea ice volume in the Antarctic.”
Live Science, 29 Jun 2005

sinking …. sinking ….

house_underwater_2
Up to a quarter of a million homes around the country, vital power stations, ports, sewerage pipes, water supplies and transport hubs, including Sydney airport, are at serious risk of flooding as a result of sea-level rise and bigger storm tides caused by climate change, warns the Rudd Government’s first national assessment of the coastline…

The report draws on scientific experts from the CSIRO, GeoScience Australia, the University of Tasmania and the Department of Climate Change. At risk by 2100, 157,000 to 247,000 homes, 170 industrial zones, 1800 bridges, 120 ports, 360 schools colleges and universities, 102 retirement/nursing homes, 258 police, fire and ambullance stations and 75 hospitals and health centres.
Sydney Morning Herald/ Environment, 14 Nov 2009. “Flood warning: lucky they brought a paddle”

practice yoga and save the world!

elephant_yoga2Indian Prime Minister Says Yoga Could Help Stop Climate Change. India’s new prime minister thinks that his country’s ancient practice could actually help save the world.

According to Grist, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi – who failed to attend the U.N. Climate Summit in 2014 – has a vision for a green future that involves practicing yoga in order to change the way we approach consumption.

“By changing our lifestyle and creating consciousness, it can help us deal with climate change. Let us work towards adopting an International Yoga Day,” Modi told the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday.
Inhabitat, 22 Jun 2015

(c) Can Stock Photo

doubt cast on Indian climate change research

dog_bites_manDuring the research we experienced floods in Tianjin, a record-breaking power cut across northern India, record high temperatures in Karachi and conflicts over resources and land use in Indonesia between palm oil companies and Indigenous people.

One researcher was bitten by dog while interviewing people in the Kathmandu valley. More prosaically during one community assessment in Nepal people misled the researcher about having access to television in the hope that they would give them new television sets.
thirdpole.net 8 Oct 2013

(c) Can Stock Photo

India’s incredible shrinking cow!

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Worsening heat, fodder shortages and the threat of drought are forcing many hard-hit dairy farmers in the Anantapur area of India’s southern Kerala state to reduce their herds, experts say. But the solution to the problem is simple and small, livestock experts argue: heat-tolerant dwarf cows.

“It is a fact that the characteristics of the seasons have been altered by the disastrous impacts of climate change, so our lifestyle needs to adapt to using our indigenous flora and fauna,” said K. Ramankutty, a dairy farmer in Palakkad. The dwarf cow is a great weapon against climate change, he said.
Reuters, 29 Jun 2015

(c) Can Stock Photo

Lohachara island lost

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Rising seas, caused by global warming, have for the first time washed an inhabited island off the face of the Earth. The obliteration of Lohachara island, in India’s part of the Sundarbans where the Ganges and the Brahmaputra rivers empty into the Bay of Bengal, marks the moment when one of the most apocalyptic predictions of environmentalists and climate scientists has started coming true.
The Independent, 24 Dec 2006

Lohachara island found

A little more than two years later, Lohachara island is emerging again. This was first noticed by Jadavpur University scientists in satellite images. This island in the western part of the Sunderbans it was claimed was the first inhabited one in the world to be inundated because of global warming. Along with this to go under water was the nearby island of Suparibhanga or Bedford, a land mass which was uninhabited, officially.

According to Tuhin Ghosh, senior lecturer, School of Oceanographic studies, JU, “Lohachara and Bedford were there in 1975 satellite data. In 1990 pictures, a small portion of Lohachara is visible. There’s no sign of Bedford. In a 1995 satellite picture, Lohachara had vanished. But in satellite pictures of 2007, you can see Lohachara coming back… It’s a revelation.”
The Times of India, 3 Apr 2009
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less tigers

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The Sundarban tigers, with a fearsome reputation for human attacks, protect the world’s largest mangrove forest from deforestation. The 4,000 square miles of mangrove, which spans India and Bangladesh, acts as a vital carbon sink and natural buffer against increasingly intense cyclones and storm surges. But the Sundarbans are also home to poor landless communities who struggle to make a living in this unforgiving environment.

This means they are encroaching on tiger territory. Their impact on the forest is limited, however, by the presence of the man eaters. Without the tigers, say local conservationists, the mangroves would soon disappear at the hands of humans, leaving Kolkata and South Bengal exposed to major floods from cyclone-related storm surges.
Christian Aid, 22 Apr 2015

more tigers – maybe

The Indian government had trumpeted the rise in tigers from 1,706 in 2011 to 2,226 in 2014 as a sign that state-led conservation programmes were working. “This is a proof of India’s biodiversity and how we care for mitigating climate change. This is India’s steps in the right direction, which the world will applaud,” environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, said at the time.

But the new University of Oxford paper concluded that the statistical model used by India is a poor way to accurately predict tiger numbers.

Dr Ullas Karanth, co-author and a member of India’s National Tiger Conservation Authority, said: “This study exposes fundamental statistical weaknesses in the sampling, calibration and extrapolations that are at the core of methodology used by the government to estimate India’s numbers, thus undermining their reliability.”
The Guardian, 25 Feb 2015
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data don’t matter

“The presenter was incredulous and asked Folland to repeat his statement so that the entire audience could hear, and Folland again said, ‘The data don’t matter… we’re not basing our recommendations upon the data; we’re basing them upon the climate models.’”
Chris Folland, presentation to climatologists, August 13, 1991, Sound and Fury: The Science and Politics of Global Warming by Patrick Michaels (Cato Institute, 1992), p. 83

see also – Say what?

didn’t quite get there…

The United Nation’s climate chief says that reordering the global economy to fight climate change is the “most difficult” task the international body has ever undertaken.

Christiana Figueres, who heads up the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, told reporters, “This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model, for the first time in human history.”

Figueres continued, “This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years–since the industrial revolution.”
Europa.eu, 11 Feb 2015

see also – in their own words

food poisoning

food_poisoning2

“Britain should be prepared for an increase in food poisoning and upset stomachs as a result of climate change, a meeting will be told today.

Global warming could also create conditions favourable for a return of malaria to the UK, where it was once endemic in Kent, although the disease was very unlikely to gain a foothold,” said Prof Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia in Norwich.
The Telegraph, 5 Jan 2006

Doomsday – 2047

Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043. And eventually the whole world in 2047. A new study on global warming pinpoints the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems around the world will regularly experience hotter environments the likes of which they have never seen before.

Study author Camilo Mora and his colleagues said they hope this new way of looking at climate change will spur governments to do something before it is too late. Now is the time to act, said another study co-author, Ryan Longman.

Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii, and colleagues ran simulations from 39 different computer models and looked at hundreds of thousands of species, maps and data points to ask when places will have “an environment like we had never seen before.”
The Big Story, 9 Oct 2013

Doomsday – 2029

“One problem facing humanity is now so urgent that, unless it is resolved in the next two decades, it will destroy our global civilization: the climate crisis.”
Now or Never: Why We Must Act Now to End Climate Change and Create a Sustainable Future, by Tim Flannery (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2009), p. 14

you can’t have both!

scalesBritish author Robert Newman states: “There is no meaningful response to climate change without massive social change. A cap on this and a quota on the other won’t do it. Tinker at the edges as we may, we cannot sustain earth’s life-support systems within the present economic system.”

“Capitalism is not sustainable by its very nature. It is predicated on infinitely expanding markets, faster consumption and bigger production in a finite planet… You can either have capitalism or a habitable planet. One or the other, not both.”
The Guardian, 2 Feb 2006

Arctic sea ice – 2013

bear_with_flower

Data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that the year began with ice covering a larger area than at the beginning of 2007. But now it is down to levels seen last June, at the beginning of a summer that broke records for sea ice loss. Scientists on the project say much of the ice is so thin as to melt easily, and the Arctic seas may be ice-free in summer within five to 10 years.

“I think we’re going to beat last year’s record melt, though I’d love to be wrong. If we do, then I don’t think 2013 is far off any more. If what we think is going to happen does happen, then it’ll be within a decade anyway,” said Julienne Stroeve from NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado.
BBC News, 18 Jun 2008

cat let out of bag!

On 1 June 2015, gave the Swiss daily paper a revealing admission of the former Swiss Federal Council (Bundesrat = Minister and President of the Swiss group occasional government) Moritz Leuenberger. The key quote in the article states: The climate summit in Copenhagen shortly before the vote for the reduction of CO 2 emissions was disastrous, Leuenberger admits now.

But then he did this deliberately not told the media and therefore lied, so that the Swiss would vote for it. Leuenberger: “Now I believe that lie is legitimate if it causes something good.” No tricks zone, 5 Jul 2015

Arctic sea ice – 2008

canstockphoto23413470
North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008 You know when climate change is biting hard when instead of a vast expanse of snow the North Pole is a vast expanse of water.

This year, for the first time, Arctic scientists are preparing for that possibility. The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.
ABC News (US), 27 Apr 2008

look out below!

falling_rocks
A vast chunk of Europe’s most ill-famed mountain threatens to break loose and crash down in the next few days, a geologist monitoring the situation told the Guardian on Friday.

Hans-Rudolf Keusen said 2m cubic metres of the Eiger in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland – twice the volume of the Empire State Building – was rapidly working its way loose. He said the mountain appeared to have cracked open as an indirect result of global warming.
The Guardian, 8/7/06

invasion – poison ivy

scratching_dog2

Lewis H. Ziska, a research weed ecologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said laboratory and field studies show that poison ivy is advancing with climate change.

“That trend will continue as carbon dioxide levels keep rising from the current average level of about 400 parts per million to 560 ppm or higher in the next 30 to 50 years, with predicted levels reaching 800 ppm by century’s end. Already poison ivy’s growth and potency has doubled since the 1960s, and it could double again once CO2 levels reach the 560 ppm mark,” Mr. Ziska said.

As a result, Americans might have to scratch their way into a climate-altered future.Pittsburgh Post Gazettte, 22 Jul 2013

Doomsday – 2115

Humans will be extinct in 100 years due to overcrowding, declining resources and climate change, according to a prominent scientist. The comments were first made by Australian microbiologist Dr Frank Fenner in 2010, but engineer and science writer David Auerbach has reiterated the doom-laden warning in his latest article.

He criticises the recent G7 summit for failing to deal with the problems facing the survival of humanity, such as global warming and exhausting Earth’s resources. He noted that ‘dangerous’ climate change was already here, but the question now was whether ‘catastrophic’ climate change could be avoided.

‘Ultimately, we need a Cold War-level of investment in research into new technologies to mitigate the coming effects of global warming,’ he concluded. ‘Without it, the UN’s work is a nice gesture, but hardly a meaningful one.’
Daily Mail, 19-06-2015

air conditioners to the rescue!

air_cond
Our innovative approach allows for presumably random variation in the distribution of daily temperatures to affect birth rates up to 24 months into the future.

We find that additional days above 80 °F cause a large decline in birth rates approximately 8 to 10 months later. The lack of a full rebound suggests that increased temperatures due to climate change may reduce population growth rates in the coming century.

…As an added cost, climate change will shift even more births to the summer months when third trimester exposure to dangerously high temperatures increases. Based on our analysis of historical changes in the temperature-fertility relationship, we conclude air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of climate change.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 21681, Issued in October 2015

thanks to ddh

you first!

“We must make this an insecure and inhospitable place for capitalists and their projects. We must reclaim the roads and plowed land, halt dam construction, tear down existing dams, free shackled rivers and return to wilderness millions of acres of presently settled land.”
David Foreman, co-founder of Earth First! Source: This Land is OUR Land, by Tim Findley, Range Magazine, Fall 2003, page 36. Screencopy held by this website.

for new category – in their own words

Arctic sea ice – 2012

canstockphoto11748448

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
BBC News, 12 Dec 2007

crossroads!

crossroads

World Environment Day has been celebrated in Brisbane with a call for a massive turn to renewable energy and the large-scale subsidy of public transport to aid in the battle against global warming. Brisbane co-convenor Paul Benedek said 2007 was a watershed year for the environment.

“The world is at a crossroads; if we keep going the way we are going, we think the climate change that is occurring will be catastrophic.”

“We have rising seas, catastrophic weather events that are happening – you only have to look down at NSW – lives and species are threatened, look at what is happening at the poles, the ice melting. We think it is absolutely urgent and we are calling for a massive turn to renewable energy.”
The Age, 9 Jun 2007

bleak future

pyramids_underwater

In 600 pages, Sir Nicholas Stern spells out a bleak future gripped by violent storms, rising sea levels, crippling droughts and economic chaos unless urgent action is taken to tackle global warming. Rising sea levels will threaten countries like Bangladesh but also some of the biggest cities, including London, New York, Tokyo and Shanghai.

Ocean acidification could destroy fish stocks, crop failure will leave hundreds of millions at risk of starvation and up to 200 million people will be displaced by rising sea levels, floods and drought. It is already too late to avoid many of the problems facing people in the Third World.

The Telegraph, 31 Oct 2006

Doomsday – 2100

In short, human driven climate change poses a great threat, unprecedented in type and scale to well-being, health and perhaps even to human survival……

Looking ahead to 2100, for which some modelled scenarios project an average global warming of 4 degrees Celsius , the report foresees that in such conditions people won’t be able to cope, let alone work productively, in the hottest parts of the year. And that’s assuming social and economic institutions and processes are till intact. Some regions may become uninhabitable.
“Australian National University, “Climate change and health: IPCC reports emerging risks, emerging consensus.” 31 Mar 2014

going, … going ….

canstockphoto20049549

Famous global landmarks including the Statue of Liberty, Tower of London and Sydney Opera House will be lost to rising seas caused by climate change, scientists have warned.

“It’s relatively safe to say that we will see the first impacts at these sites in the 21st century,” lead author Prof Ben Marzeoin, of the University of Innsbruck in Austria, told the Guardian. “Typically when people talk about climate change it’s about the economic or environmental consequences, how much it’s goin to cost. We wanted to look at the cultural implications.”

The Guardian 5 Mar 2014

(c) Can Stock Photo