So what, geologically speaking, can we look forward to if we continue to pump out greenhouse gases at the present hell-for-leather rate? With resulting global average temperatures likely to be several degrees higher by this century’s end, we could almost certainly say an eventual goodbye to the Greenland ice sheet, and probably that covering West Antarctica too, committing us, ultimately, to a 10-metre or more rise in sea levels.
The Sydney Morning Herald 22 Mar 2012
Australian scientist Dr John Church is one of the world’s leading experts on sea level rise (he’s been studying it for a couple of decades) and was a co-ordinating lead author of the relevant chapter in the latest IPCC report.
“I would not dispute the idea that you could get substantially larger rises (beyond the end of this century) particularly with parts of West Antarctica being grounded below sea level and potentially unstable.
I don’t think that three metres is out of the question. Since the IPCC report, studies have shown that this process is now happening. We have triggered something that is potentially unstoppable.”
The Guardian 5 May 2015
thanks to Badgerbod
Despite uncertainties in reserve sizes, it is clear that if we burn all the fossil fuels, or even half of the remaining reserves, we will send the planet toward an ice-free state with sea level about 250 feet higher than today. It would take time for complete ice sheet disintegration to occur, but a chaotic situation would be created with changes occurring out of control of future generations.
James Hansen in Inside Climate News, 15 Jul 2009
In one paper, Jonathan Overbeck at the University of Arizona in Tucson, Ariz., and colleagues wrote that based on reconstructions of past climates, conditions could be ripe to raise sea level by several meters (yards) by this century’s end.
World Science.net 23 Mar 2006
More cyclones, rising sea levels and increased flooding will be the pattern for Australia’s coastal communities by 2050, a South Australian climate expert says. Professor Nick Harvey said Australia should expect sea levels to rise more than a metre by the end of the century. “We will experience more intense tropical cyclones and storms will be more frequent” Prof Harvey said.
The Age, 6 Apr 2007
Dr Tim Lenton of the University of East Anglia, believes the risk are far greater than the IPCC suggests. Speaking at a meeting in Cambridge organised by the British Antarctic Survey, Dr Lenton said: “We are close to being committed to a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet. But we don’t think we have passed the tipping point yet.”
But if the climate change crisis reached the point of no return and it were to melt then global sea levels would rise by 22ft and swallow up most of the world’s coastal regions.
The Telegraph (UK), 16 Aug 2007
Dr Gillett said the last assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found human influence could be detected on all continents except Antarctica.
In the Arctic, we have the Greenland ice sheet, in the Antarctic, the Antarctic ice sheet. If those all melted, that would contribute 70 metres to sea level. Now that’s not going to happen in the next century or even several centuries but if even some of that ice starts to melt then that could make a large contribution to sea level rise.
The Age, 31 Oct 2008
According to Dr.Joe Romm, climatologist, author and Climate Progress blogger, in the not so distant future we can expect sea level rise around 3-6 feet, but it doesn’t stop there. “It’s not like sea levels are going to rise 4 feet and stop,” Romm says. “What we are headed toward is an ice-free planet with sea level rise of 250 feet; all but 40 or 50 feet is unstoppable.”
Clean Houston, “Top Climate Scientists Warn Adaptation to Climate Change Can’t Wait” by Vicki Wolf, November 2011
Global warming is causing the Greenland ice cap to disintegrate far faster than anyone predicted. A study of the region’s massive ice sheet warns that sea levels may – as a consequence – rise more dramatically than expected.
The implications of the research are dramatic given that Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by up to 21ft, a disaster scenario that would result in the flooding of some of the world’s major population centres, including all of Britain’s city ports.
The Independent, 17 Feb 2006
“The New York City Panel on Climate Change released a report today with a number of unsettling projections for the coming century…Combine that with sea levels that are expected to rise 11 to 21 inches by the ’50s, 18 to 39 inches by the ’80s, and 22 to 50 inches by 2100, and New York City will be at risk from frequent floods.
Queens will bear the brunt of it, followed by Brooklyn, Staten Island, the Bronx, and Manhattan.”
Curbed.com, 18 Feb 2015
see also – sea level
thanks to Igor Karlich
Because the rise in temperature is expected to be higher at the earth’s poles, another effect of the climate change is expected to be a melting of the icecaps and a rise in the level of the oceans of seven feet or more.
New York Times December 11, 1985 source stevegoddarrd.wordpress.com
see also – sea level
thanks to mervyn
The level of the Mediterranean Sea is rising rapidly and could increase by up to half a metre in the next 50 years, scientists in Spain have warned. A study by the Spanish Oceanographic Institute says levels have been rising since the 1970s with the rate of increase growing in recent years. It says even a small rise could have serious consequences in coastal areas.
Last month, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the world’s sea levels would rise by a maximum of 59cm this century. Some scientists believe this is an under-estimate as it does not include the influence of “enhanced” ice-cap melting, where warmer waters lubricate the flow of ice into the oceans.
BBC News, 19/1/08
see also – sea level
The most drastic effects of global warming in Florida are likely to occur along the coastlines — where 95 percent of the state’s 16 million people live. Scientists say ocean levels are expected to rise anywhere from 8 inches to 2 feet or more over the next 50 to 100 years due to melting polar ice caps and thermal expansion of warming waters.
He said sea levels could rise six to nine feet by the end of the century. “We’re not talking the 20 feet that would be necessary to submerge Manhattan. But the Jersey shore of my youth will not exist we continue on this course.”
(Dr Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University) WFMZ News, 1 May 2013, “Dr Michael Mann warns global warming will create a fundamentally different planet.”
see also – sea level
Andrew Bolt: I ask you, Robyn, 100 metres in the next century…do you really think that?
Robyn Williams: It is possible, yes. The increase of melting that they’ve noticed in Greenland and the amount that we’ve seen from the western part of Antarctica, if those increases of three times the expected rate continue, it will be huge…
Extract from transcript of the Science Show, ABC (Australia) on 10 Mar 2007. Robyn Williams is an ABC Science presenter. Andrew Bolt is an Australian columnist and host of The Bolt Report.
see also – sea level
“A predicted rise in sea level of one foot within the next 30 to 40 years will drive much of the Atlantic and Gulf shoreline inward by 100 feet and some of it by more than 1,000 feet, according to marine geologists.”
Erik Eckholm, “The Rising Seas Problems will Seep Far Inland,” Chicago Tribune, March 16, 1986
“The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don’t act soon. None of the current climate and ice models predict this. But I prefer the evidence from the Earth’s history and my own eyes. I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself.”
Jim Hansen, “Climate change: On the edge” The Independent, 17th February, 2006
The implications of the research are dramatic given Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by up to 21ft, a disaster scenario that would result in the flooding of some of the world’s major population centres, including all of Britain’s city ports.
The latest study, presented at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, in St Louis, shows that rather than just melting relatively slowly, the ice sheet is showing all the signs of a mechanical break-up as glaciers slip ever faster into the ocean, aided by the “lubricant” of melt water forming at their base.
The Independent (UK), 17 Feb 2006
Many of the world’s major cities, including Bangkok, London, Miami and New York, could be flooded by the end of the century, according to a new analysis of current temperatures in the Arctic region published in the journal Science.
By then, global temperatures will be an average of three degrees C. higher than now — or about as hot as it was nearly 130,000 years ago, when ocean levels were four to six metres higher.
“Probably our estimates of sea-level rise even five years ago were too small, too conservative,” Jonathan Overpeck, a University of Arizona researcher who helped lead the study, was reported as saying.
www.countercurrents.org, 6 Apr 2006