Doomsday – 2010

“Climate change…is the fundamental threat to humankind…If we fail to act, climate change will intensify droughts, floods and other natural disasters. Water shortages will affect hundreds of millions of people. Malnutrition will engulf large parts of the developing world. Tensions will worsen. Social unrest—even violence—could follow. The damage to national economies will be enormous. The human suffering will be incalculable…We have just four months. Four months to secure the future of our planet.”
Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, prior to the 2009 climate conference in Copenhagen, UN News Centre, 11 Aug 2009

Doomsday – 2025

A few hours after GEO-5’s release, the journal Nature published a review of evidence on environmental change concluding that the biosphere – the part of the planet that supports life – could be heading for rapid, possibly irreversible change.

The authors, headed by Anthony Barnofsky from the University of California, Berkeley, combined information on major transformations in the Earth’s past (such as mass extinctions) with models incorporating the present and the immediate future.

More than 40% of the Earth’s land is used for human needs, including cities and farms; and with the population set to grow by a further two billion by 2050, that figure could soon exceed 50%.

Rising demand for resource-expensive foods such as beef could mean it happens by 2025, Prof Barnofsky’s modelling suggests.
BBC News, 6 Jun 2012

Doomsday – 2070

animal_dagger

But another report had been issued, just one day before, by Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. And its conclusion read like a dagger through the heart of the land down under.

If global warming contiues at its current rate the CSIRO warned, life in the city of Sydney could be completely transformed by the year 2070. In just one generation, Sydney could slide into a near permanent state of drought. There could be a dramatic rise in deadly bushfires. Temperatures would rise 10 or 15 degrees Fahrenheit, or more.

Heat related deaths would soar from nearly 200 to more than 1,200 per year. The report was very grim reading for the people of Sydney. ABC News, Australia, 24 Feb 2007

where have all the ……..

“We now understand that the majority of life on Earth has never been – and will never be – known to us. In a staggering forecast, Wilson predicts that our present course will lead to the extinction of half of all plant and animal species by 2100. But the eminent Harvard biologist Edward O Wilson, and other scientists, estimate that the true rate is more like 1,000 to 10,000 times the background rate.”

“The actual annual sum is only an educated guess, because no scientist believes that the tally of life ends at the 1.5 million species already discovered; estimates range as high as 100 million species on earth, with 10 million as the median guess. Bracketed between best- and worst-case scenarios, then, somewhere between 2.7 and 270 species are erased from existence every day.”

“Including today.”
The Independent, 30 Apr 2007

Doomsday – 2100

Global warming is irreversible and billions of people will die over the next century, one of the world’s leading climate change scientists claimed yesterday.

Professor James Lovelock, the scientist who developed the Gaia principle (that Earth is a self-regulating, interconnected system), claimed that by the year 2100 the only place where humans will be able to survive will be the Arctic.

“Much of the tropical land mass will become scrub and desert; before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs that survive will be in the Arctic, where the climate remains tolerable.”
The Scotsman, 17 Jan 2006

Doomsday – 2000

A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.

Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program.

He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human ability.
San Jose Mercury News (CA) – June 30, 1989

Doomsday – 2100

A top New Zealand researcher is using a prestigious award ceremony in Christchurch to warn that humans face extinction by the end of the century. Professor Peter Barrett will be presented with the Marsden Medal tonight for his 40-year contribution to Antarctic research, latterly focusing on climate change.

“After 40 years, I’m part of a huge community of scientists who have become alarmed with our discovery, that we know from our knowledge of the ancient past, that if we continue our present growth path, we are facing extinction,” Barrett said. “Not in millions of years, or even millennia, but by the end of this century.”
Politics Forum, 17 Nov 2004

Doomsday – 2050

fake_treeThe world has only ten years to control global warming, warns Met Office. Pollution needs to be brought under control within ten years to stop runaway climate change, according to the latest Met Office predictions.

In the worse-case scenario, modelled by the Met Office Hadley Centre, emissions had to turn negative by 2050 to stand any chance of keeping the temperature rise below 2C (3.6F).

This would mean using “geo-engineering” such as artificial trees that are designed to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
The Telegraph, 15 Nov 2009

Doomsday – 2100

The plea came as Lord Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank whose report two years ago drew attention to the possible results of global warming, told the conference that unless politicians grasped the gravity of the situation it would be “devastating”.

“Increases in average temperatures of six degrees by the end of the century were an increasing possibility and would produce conditions not seen on earth for more than 30 million years,” he said.

“What would be the implication? Hundreds of millions of people, probably billions. What wold be the implication of that? Extended conflict, social disruption, war essentially, over much of the world for many decades.”
The Telegraph (UK), 13 Mar 2009

Doomsday – 2035

Former president Mary Robinson said this morning global leaders have “at most two decades to save the world”.

In a response to the latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ms Robinson argued for a robust climate agreement by 2015 and agreement by the world to think again about renewables and for a reduction in global economic growth.
Irish Times, 14 Apr 2014

Doomsday – 2016

There is a growing fear among scientists that, thanks to man-made climate change, we are about to return to a world of climatic turbulence, where tipping points are constantly crossed. Their research into the workings of the planet’s ecosystems suggests why such sudden changes have happened in the past, and are likely again in future. Soon it could be a great deal more.

Jim Hansen of NASA, George Bush’s top climate modeller, predicts sea-level rise will be 10 times faster within a few years, as Greenland destabilises. “Building an ice sheet takes a long time,” he says. “But destroying it can be explosively rapid.” Hansen says we have 10 years to turn things around and escape disaster.
Sydney Morning Herald, 11 Nov 2006

Doomsday – 2020

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
The Guardian, 22/2/04

Doomsday – 2047

Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043. And eventually the whole world in 2047. A new study on global warming pinpoints the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems around the world will regularly experience hotter environments the likes of which they have never seen before.

Study author Camilo Mora and his colleagues said they hope this new way of looking at climate change will spur governments to do something before it is too late. Now is the time to act, said another study co-author, Ryan Longman.

Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii, and colleagues ran simulations from 39 different computer models and looked at hundreds of thousands of species, maps and data points to ask when places will have “an environment like we had never seen before.”
The Big Story, 9 Oct 2013

Doomsday – 2029

“One problem facing humanity is now so urgent that, unless it is resolved in the next two decades, it will destroy our global civilization: the climate crisis.”
Now or Never: Why We Must Act Now to End Climate Change and Create a Sustainable Future, by Tim Flannery (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2009), p. 14

Doomsday – 2115

Humans will be extinct in 100 years due to overcrowding, declining resources and climate change, according to a prominent scientist. The comments were first made by Australian microbiologist Dr Frank Fenner in 2010, but engineer and science writer David Auerbach has reiterated the doom-laden warning in his latest article.

He criticises the recent G7 summit for failing to deal with the problems facing the survival of humanity, such as global warming and exhausting Earth’s resources. He noted that ‘dangerous’ climate change was already here, but the question now was whether ‘catastrophic’ climate change could be avoided.

‘Ultimately, we need a Cold War-level of investment in research into new technologies to mitigate the coming effects of global warming,’ he concluded. ‘Without it, the UN’s work is a nice gesture, but hardly a meaningful one.’
Daily Mail, 19-06-2015